Wednesday, November 21, 2007

#142: Thresholds

Kyrgyzstan is buzzing with discussions of the 5% and 0.5% thresholds for the parliamentary elections. Because of the ambiguous wording of the Elections Code, it was unclear how these thresholds to be calculated. As I've already written, political parties have to secure 5% of all registered voters (135,000 votes), not 5% of the actual number of people who voted on the election day, to get seats in the Parliament. If the turnout is 50%, then this will require parties to get 10% of voters on the actual voting day.

CEC's ruling on the 0.5% threshold caused more anger from political parties. It interpreted that the political parties will have to get 0.5% of votes (13,500 votes) in each of 7 oblasts (provinces) and cities of Bishkek and Osh separately to get any seats. Because of different size of populations in each oblasts and cities, some oblasts, especially the small ones, will be unfairly given more power to decide the outcome of the elections.

Table below shows how, for example, political parties will have to get at least 10% in Osh city, 11.3% in Talas oblast, and 9.4% Naryn oblast to get to the parliament. Political parties will have to work especially hard in those oblasts, similar to the battle for Ohio during the 2004 U.S. Presidential elections. If a party wins in all provinces, but gets only 9% of votes in Osh city, it will be refused to enter the parliament. Trouble expected after December 16.

City/Oblast

Voters Registered (appr.)

% required (13,500 votes)

Bishkek (city)

430,000

3.1%

Osh (city)

133,000

10.2%

Batken (oblast)

221,000

6.1%

Chui (oblast)

437,000

3.8%

Issykul (oblast)

232000

5.8%

Jalalabad (oblast)

492000

2.7%

Naryn (oblast)

143000

9.4%

Osh (oblast)

592000

2.3%

Talas (oblast)

120000

11.3%

This is if the turnout if 100%. If 70% of people, vote the real threshold will be higher, for example, as high as 15% in Talas.

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